EU steel market: first green shoots of recovery

EUROFER’s quarter 1-2010 report on the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2010-2011 signals that economic momentum in the EU economy should gradually gain further strength this year. Progress will be slow and surrounded by uncertainties; however, the risks are now much more balanced than a year ago

Also in the steel using sectors the recovery will take hold. Activity in the manufacturing sector will be supported by improving international trade and inventory replenishment. The outlook for the engineering industries and automotive manufacturers has become slightly more upbeat. In contrast, perspectives for the construction sector have darkened, mainly due to a further deterioration in the non-residential sector. On balance, output in the steel using sectors will rise 0.6% in 2010. A further strengthening is expected for 2011 with growth accelerating to 3.5-4%. EUROFER director general Gordon Moffat: “We are seeing the first green shoots of recovery and there is confidence that this will translate into a further improvement in EU steel market fundamentals”. Recently, orders and deliveries have risen compared with the depressed levels registered in the final months of 2008 and 1st half of 2009. Low imports and reduced levels of domestic supply have resulted in supply currently being much better aligned with still weak demand levels. Nevertheless, apparent consumption is estimated to have fallen by almost 35% in the whole of 2009.

Low inventories at the start of 2010 will be supportive to market dynamics gradually gaining strength during this year. Any further improvement in demand side fundamentals should trigger a corresponding need to replenish inventories from their current low levels. This will provide the major boost to the 12.5% rise in apparent consumption expected in 2010. The rebound in real steel consumption expected for 2011 will broaden the basis for growth in apparent consumption. The import situation remains an issue of concern. So far, rising global steel production has not yet resulted in a significant increase in imports into Europe. But Moffat adds:” if global demand would fail to follow the rising trend in steel output, temporary oversupply elsewhere could lead to import pressure building up in the EU more strongly than currently projected